Top 5 teams for goal upside in GW36
Manchester City lead the week comfortably. Their home meeting with Crystal Palace carries an attack factor of 1.47, the highest in the model, against an opponent defensive weakness of 0.92. That is enough to put City clear at the top despite Palace not being an outright collapse spot defensively. The standout asset is obvious, Haaland at £14.6m with a huge 15.01 xP. When the best team total and the best individual projection line up, FPL managers should pay attention.
Arsenal rank second with an attack factor of 1.39 away to West Ham, and this is boosted by a generous opponent defensive weakness of 1.26. That is one of the softest defensive numbers in the slate, so Arsenal’s position is fully earned. The top projected attacker is Gyökeres, priced at £8.9m with 5.32 xP. The team environment is excellent, even if the individual projections do not approach Haaland territory.
Manchester United come in third, away to Sunderland, with an attack factor of 1.30 against a defensive weakness of 0.95. This is more about United’s own attacking expectation than a glaringly poor opponent, but it still places them firmly among the best goal targets of the week. Bruno Fernandes is the key name at £10.4m and 4.58 xP, and his route to points remains appealing because he can combine open-play threat with set pieces and penalties.
Liverpool are fourth at home to Chelsea, posting an attack factor of 1.22 against an opponent defensive weakness of 0.99. This is a good, not elite, attacking projection. It is notable that the top projected Liverpool attacker is Szoboszlai at just £7.0m with 3.77 xP, which says plenty about how spread Liverpool’s threat may be this week. The team can still score well, but the standout individual may be less clear.
Bournemouth complete the top five with an attack factor of 1.14 away to Fulham, who carry a defensive weakness of 1.01. This is a more marginal edge, but still enough to put them ahead of several bigger clubs. Evanilson is their best attacker in the projections at £6.7m and 3.94 xP, making him a credible budget-forward consideration for managers chasing upside outside the premium pool.
Best attacker per team
- Man City: Haaland, £14.6m, 15.01 xP
- Arsenal: Gyökeres, £8.9m, 5.32 xP
- Man Utd: Bruno Fernandes, £10.4m, 4.58 xP
- Liverpool: Szoboszlai, £7.0m, 3.77 xP
- Bournemouth: Evanilson, £6.7m, 3.94 xP
Captaincy implications
This looks like a straightforward week at the top. Haaland is the standout captain by distance. City have the best team goal projection, and his 15.01 xP is on a different level to every other option listed here. If you want the percentage play, this is it.
The alternatives are more about trying to gain ground than following the data. Arsenal’s fixture gives them the second-best team environment, so a punt there is understandable, but Gyökeres on 5.32 xP is still nowhere near Haaland’s projection. Bruno Fernandes also offers a viable differential captain for managers backing minutes security and penalties, yet his 4.58 xP frames the risk clearly. In short, the model says captain Haaland, and build the rest of your attack around Arsenal, United, Liverpool, and Bournemouth exposure where squad structure allows.