GW38 is where rank swings get extreme. Effective ownership condenses around the obvious captaincy and template picks, so low-owned players with credible projected returns become far more valuable. If you are chasing, this is the week to back players under 10 percent ownership who still carry solid expected points. The numbers below do exactly that.
Top 5 differentials for GW38
1. Raúl, Fulham
Raúl tops the differential list with 3.67 xP, at just 1.8% selected, and gets a home match against Newcastle. At £5.9m, he is the standout forward punt if you need to break from the popular striker pool. The recent 0.7 form is not exciting, but GW38 is often about one fixture, not a six-week trend. The projection says he is still the best differential striker on the board.
2. José Sá, Wolves
If you want a goalkeeper differential, Sá is one of the cleanest plays. He is projected for 3.58 xP, costs only £4.2m, and is owned by just 1.1%. Wolves travel to Burnley, and that combination of save potential plus clean sheet route gives him a strong floor for the final day. His 3.0 form is steady enough for a one-week punt.
3. O’Brien, Everton
O’Brien is not the easiest fixture pick, away to Tottenham, but the model still gives him 3.49 xP at only 0.7% ownership. At £4.9m, he is the kind of defender who can decide mini-leagues because almost nobody owns him. The upside here likely comes from appearance security and defensive return potential, even in a tougher game.
4. Hermansen, West Ham
Hermansen is another budget goalkeeper worth serious attention. He comes in at 3.45 xP, with a much better recent 4.7 form, and is selected by only 1.0%. A home game against Leeds gives him a decent path to points, and at £4.2m he is an easy route if you are trying to gain ground with a keeper switch.
5. Ampadu, Leeds
A midfielder at £4.9m with 3.40 xP and just 0.6% selection will always get interest in GW38. Ampadu also brings the strongest recent form of this top five at 5.3. The away trip to West Ham is not perfect, but if you need a cheap midfield enabler who is genuinely different, he fits.
Risky punts worth a swing
- Trossard, Arsenal. Only 1.8% owned, with 3.34 xP away at Palace. The appeal is obvious, explosive quality in a strong attack. The risk is minutes.
- Flemming, Burnley. Projected for 3.37 xP, with 5.0 form and only 0.8% ownership. Home to Wolves makes him a viable final-day forward dart.
Verdict
Raúl is the best all-round GW38 differential on the board, combining the highest expected points, low ownership, and a home fixture. José Sá is the safest alternative if you want your differential in goal. If you are really chasing, add Trossard or Flemming and embrace the variance. In the final gameweek, that is often where the biggest gains are made.