If you are chasing in a mini-league, safety picks rarely move the needle. GW37 is the point where you need players who can deliver a meaningful haul while the field looks elsewhere. The brief here is simple, target upside, target low effective ownership, and back fixtures where one return can swing rank.
Top 5 differential picks for GW37
1. João Pedro, Chelsea, FWD, £7.4m
Strictly speaking, João Pedro is not a true differential at 34.8% selected, but he still makes the list because the upside is obvious. He leads this group on 5.75 expected points and gets Tottenham at home, a fixture that can open up quickly. His recent form of 2.8 is not spectacular, which should keep some managers away, but that is exactly what makes him interesting as a one-week punt. If you want the highest projection in this pool, he is the standout.
2. Semenyo, Man City, MID, £8.0m
Semenyo is another pick that is more aggressive upside play than classic differential, with 46.2% selection. Still, he offers a strong blend of projection and recent output, posting 4.60 xP and 4.2 form. The away trip to Bournemouth gives him the kind of game state where attacking returns can come in bunches. If you are trying to make up ground with a midfielder outside the usual captaincy pool, he is a live option.
3. Guéhi, Man City, DEF, £5.1m
Among the defenders, Guéhi looks one of the most balanced bets. He comes in at £5.1m, carries 4.38 xP, and matches Semenyo on 4.2 form. Again, the 32.6% selection is not ideal for a pure differential article, but defenders often become rank gains through clean sheet plus bonus rather than explosive ownership swings. Away to Bournemouth, he gives you a realistic route to six to nine points.
4. O’Reilly, Man City, DEF, £5.3m
O’Reilly is much closer to the profile chasers want. At 19.2% selected, he is lower owned than the names above, while still carrying a respectable 4.11 xP. The concern is the weak recent form of 1.6, so this is less about momentum and more about fixture exploitation. If you want a defender who can differentiate your back line without completely sacrificing projection, he fits.
5. Matheus N., Man City, DEF, £5.3m
This is the real differential. 2.9% selected, 4.02 xP, and an away match at Bournemouth. His form of 1.8 is modest, which explains the low ownership, but at this stage of the season that is exactly the kind of profile worth considering if you need to jump multiple teams. One clean sheet, a bonus point or attacking involvement, and he becomes a major rank lever.
Captaincy angle
None of these are obvious armband picks in a vacuum, but if you are chasing hard, João Pedro is the one with the best case. The combination of 5.75 xP and a home match against Spurs gives him the clearest ceiling. Semenyo would be the next-best rogue captain if you want to bet on a high-event game away to Bournemouth.
Verdict
For sensible aggression, João Pedro is the best all-round play and Matheus N. is the best true differential. If you need one pick to protect some upside, take João Pedro. If you need a swing that can genuinely change mini-league standings, Matheus N. is the one to back.