Top transfer ins
1. Erling Haaland
Haaland is the standout buy for GW38. He leads this list on expected points with 7.69 xP, his form is a healthy 5.4, and Manchester City finish at home to Aston Villa. When the highest-upside forward in the game also has the best projection on the board, the case is simple. At £14.7m and already 62.5% owned, this is not just an upside move, it is also strong protection against a huge effective ownership swing.
2. Gabriel
Gabriel looks like the best defensive transfer for managers chasing both clean sheet odds and goal threat. Arsenal travel to Crystal Palace, and Gabriel comes in with 5.38 xP, 6.0 form, and 45.4% selection. That combination is hard to ignore in the final week. Palace also supply two of the top transfer-outs this week, which underlines how attractive the Arsenal defensive matchup is.
3. David Raya
If you want the Arsenal clean sheet route without using a defender slot, Raya is the clean alternative. His 4.82 xP is excellent for a goalkeeper, his form sits at 5.0, and he is still only 36.4% owned at £6.2m. Away to Palace is one of the clearest fixture wins in the data this week, and Raya gives you access to it with save potential layered on top.
Bowen and Calvert-Lewin also deserve mention. Bowen has 4.63 xP, 5.3 form, and a home game against Leeds, while Calvert-Lewin is priced at just £5.8m with 4.52 xP and the same 5.3 form. Both are viable if your structure does not allow Haaland.
Top transfer outs
1. Daniel Muñoz
Muñoz is the clearest sell in defence. His form has dropped to 2.0, and he now faces Arsenal. With Gabriel and Raya both projecting strongly against Palace, holding a Palace defender on 9.2% ownership feels like playing against the numbers.
2. Dean Henderson
Henderson is in the same boat. The Palace keeper has just 1.4 form and 9.0% ownership, and this is a brutal fixture to carry into the final week. If you can turn him into Raya, that is one of the cleanest upgrades available.
3. Trevoh Chalobah
Chalobah rounds out the main sells. A form score of just 0.8 is the weakest of the key exits, and at 8.8% selection he is still owned enough to matter. In GW38, low-ceiling defenders with poor recent output are exactly the kind of assets to move on from.
Kudus and Reijnders are also easy sells on the data. Kudus is down at 0.0 form with 9.1% ownership, while Reijnders sits at 1.2 form and 8.9% selected.
Recommended swap pairs
- Muñoz to Gabriel. You upgrade from a defender with 2.0 form in a bad fixture to one with 5.38 xP and 6.0 form.
- Henderson to Raya. This is the most direct fixture and form swing on the board, from 1.4 form to a goalkeeper with 4.82 xP.
- Kudus to Bowen, if your game format allows the positional move in your squad structure. Bowen’s 4.63 xP and home fixture against Leeds make him the obvious attacking replacement for a player sitting on 0.0 form.