Top clean sheet teams for GW38
Burnley lead the defensive ticker this week with a huge 0.65 clean sheet probability at home to Wolves. That is comfortably the best number on the board, so even if Burnley defenders are not popular names in FPL, the fixture is too strong to ignore for one-week punts.
Wolves are next at 0.48 away to Burnley. It is unusual to see both sides of one fixture rate this well, but the model clearly expects a low-event game. That makes Wolves defenders and goalkeeper options very viable for managers chasing a final-week return.
Arsenal rank third with a 0.45 clean sheet probability away to Crystal Palace. Arsenal defenders always carry stronger attacking upside than most teams on this list, so even a slightly lower shutout probability can still translate into premium-level expected points.
Chelsea also sit on 0.45, away to Sunderland. This is a solid fixture for anyone shopping in the mid-price bracket, particularly if you want a route into a defence that projects well without paying Arsenal prices.
Leeds complete the top five with a 0.42 clean sheet probability away to West Ham. That is not an elite number, but in GW38 it is strong enough to put their budget defenders firmly in play.
Best defender per team
Arsenal, Gabriel
Gabriel, £7.3m, xP 5.38, is the standout defender pick from this week’s top clean sheet teams. Arsenal’s 0.45 shutout probability is already strong, and Gabriel adds major goal threat from set pieces. If you are buying one premium defender for GW38, he is the best combination of security and upside.
Chelsea, no standout defender over the keeper
Chelsea’s defensive appeal is real because of the 0.45 clean sheet probability, but the best value route looks to be in goal rather than defence. If you still want a defender, it is more of a team-structure play than a pure projections one.
Leeds, Rodon
Rodon, £3.9m, xP 3.55, is one of the best budget defensive options of the week. Leeds are at 0.42 for a clean sheet, and at that price point you are mostly paying for appearance plus shutout potential. He is ideal as a cheap starter or first sub.
Burnley and Wolves
Burnley top the slate at 0.65, but their highest projected defensive option is actually goalkeeper Dúbravka rather than an outfield defender. The same applies to Wolves, whose best-rated defensive asset is José Sá with the team at 0.48. For both clubs, the keeper looks the sharper play.
Goalkeeper picks
- Dúbravka, Burnley, £4.0m, xP 4.50. The best goalkeeper pick of the week, backed by Burnley’s slate-leading 0.65 clean sheet probability at home to Wolves.
- Sánchez, Chelsea, £4.8m, xP 4.16. Chelsea rate at 0.45 away to Sunderland, and Sánchez is the cleanest route into that projection.
- Pope, Newcastle, £5.0m, xP 3.80. Newcastle are just outside the top five at 0.40 away to Fulham, keeping Pope firmly in the conversation.
- José Sá, Wolves, £4.2m, xP 3.58. Wolves’ 0.48 clean sheet probability makes him a strong budget goalkeeper option.
Just outside the main list, Bournemouth and Everton both sit on 0.38 clean sheet probability. Senesi, £5.2m, xP 4.37, and Tarkowski, £5.8m, xP 4.25 are both credible differential defenders if you want to move away from the more obvious teams.