What matters this week
Three things decide this wildcard: Brighton’s fixture against Crystal Palace, Arsenal’s travel to Nottingham Forest, and the price gap between budget enablers and premium attackers. Brighton supply five of the fifteen picks here because the data backs it up: Groß is form 12.3 with xP 6.03, De Cuyper is form 10.7 with xP 5.60, and Kostoulas sits at form 7.0 with xP 7.15, all at home against Palace. Haaland’s xP of 10.25 at home to Ipswich is the single biggest number on the sheet and cannot be ignored regardless of budget strain.
How to weigh it
When a cluster of players from one fixture all post strong xP and form figures, as Brighton’s do here, it is usually worth leaning into that fixture rather than spreading picks thin. The trade-off is price. Loading up on Haaland at £15.6m and Palmer at £9.7m eats budget fast, so the Brighton picks double as value plays that let the rest of the squad function. Selection percentage is a tiebreaker, not a driver. Calafiori’s 51.7% and Haaland’s 74.6% tell you the crowd agrees, but Vuskovic at 4.3% and Gomez at 3.6% show the model finds value the ownership numbers have not caught up to yet.
Lineup overview
A 3-4-3 shape fits the data best, with Brighton’s defensive pair protected and the front line carrying the attacking weight.
Goalkeeper
Raya starts, xP 5.03 and form 6.0 away at Nottingham Forest. Tzolakis backs up at £4.7m.
Defence
De Cuyper (xP 5.60, form 10.7) and Vuskovic (xP 5.01, form 7.3) are the Brighton anchors. Gvardiol (xP 5.03) starts for City at home to Ipswich. Gabriel and Calafiori round out the back five for Arsenal’s trip to Forest.
Midfield
Groß leads with xP 6.03 and form 12.3. Cherki (xP 5.56) and Palmer (xP 4.69) add attacking threat, with Gomez (xP 4.64) offering Brighton depth at £5.0m and Saka (xP 4.55) completing the group.
Forwards
Haaland is the clear top forward at xP 10.25. Kostoulas (xP 7.15, form 7.0) and João Pedro (xP 6.02, form 8.0) fill out the line.
Captain pick
Haaland is the armband choice without much debate. xP 10.25 is nearly double the next best figure on this list, and he is at home to Ipswich.
Bench order
Tzolakis first as the second goalkeeper. Among outfield players, prioritise minutes and fixture over price, so whichever of the defensive rotation options you trust least for game time should sit lowest.
Budget reality
This squad prices out at £107.4m, £7.4m over the standard £100m budget. To bring it in line, drop Palmer (£9.7m) or Saka (£9.6m) for a cheaper midfield option, or downgrade Gabriel (£7.9m) to free funds elsewhere while keeping the Brighton core intact.
If you are unsure
Default to the Brighton-heavy, Haaland-captained structure above. It is backed by the highest xP and form numbers in the data, and the budget overage can be trimmed with a single midfield downgrade without disturbing the core picks.
See when to play your chips, based on your actual squad
fplwire reads your live FPL team and shows you your captain options, transfer targets, chip timing and mini league standings in one place. Free, and no account needed.