Clean sheet hunting in GW8 comes down to matching fixture strength with the right defender or keeper on the pitch. Here is how to read the data and where to spend your money.
What matters this week
- Clean sheet probability spread is tight. The top eight teams sit between 0.39 and 0.49, so there is no single standout fortress this week, just a cluster of solid options.
- Price does not track CS odds. Ipswich’s Davis is £4.0m with a 0.43 CS prob, while Man City’s Gvardiol is £5.8m for a slightly lower 0.41. Budget picks are viable here.
- Expected points vary even at similar CS odds. Gvardiol’s xP of 4.96 is the highest in the list despite City not having the top CS probability, which tells you attacking threat from defenders is boosting his number.
How to weigh it
When clean sheet probabilities are this bunched, do not chase the single highest number. A 0.49 probability from Chelsea is only marginally safer than Brentford’s 0.39, so the tie breaker should be price efficiency and the player’s own attacking upside, like Gvardiol’s 4.96 xP or Bogle’s 4.78. If budget is tight, the cheaper options like Davis at £4.0m or Rushworth at £4.5m let you spread funds elsewhere without sacrificing much CS probability.
Top 5 teams for clean sheets
- Chelsea home v Tottenham, CS prob 0.49, the highest on the list.
- Fulham away v Coventry, CS prob 0.43.
- Ipswich Town home v Nottingham Forest, CS prob 0.43.
- Coventry City home v Fulham, CS prob 0.41.
- Man City away v Aston Villa, CS prob 0.41.
Best defender per team
- Chelsea: Lacroix, £5.9m, xP 4.49.
- Fulham: Leno is the keeper pick, but their defensive line benefits from the same 0.43 CS prob.
- Ipswich Town: Davis, £4.0m, xP 3.85, a strong budget option.
- Coventry City: their CS prob of 0.41 is backed by Rushworth in goal rather than an outfield standout in this data.
- Man City: Gvardiol, £5.8m, xP 4.96, the top expected points figure across all picks listed.
Goalkeeper picks
- Leno (Fulham), £4.5m, xP 4.38, backed by a 0.43 CS prob away at Coventry.
- Rushworth (Coventry City), £4.5m, xP 4.20, with a 0.41 CS prob at home to Fulham.
- Raya (Arsenal), £6.1m, xP 4.86, the highest xP among keepers listed, with a 0.39 CS prob at home to Everton.
- Kelleher (Brentford), £5.0m, xP 4.26, 0.39 CS prob away at Hull.
If you are unsure
Default to Gvardiol at £5.8m. His 4.96 xP is the highest figure in this dataset and Man City’s 0.41 CS prob away at Villa is competitive with the pack, giving you both clean sheet security and attacking upside in one pick.
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