Clean sheet hunting in GW6 comes down to reading the fixture list correctly and matching it to defenders who actually see the ball. The data below points to a clear top tier and a few value plays underneath it.
What matters this week
- Fixture strength: Man Utd (home v TOT) and Newcastle (away v COV) both sit on a 0.53 clean sheet probability, the highest of the gameweek.
- Price versus expected points: some of the cheapest options outscore pricier ones on xP, for example De Cuyper at £4.9m projects 4.99 xP, ahead of every other defender listed here.
- Home advantage isn’t decisive on its own: Brentford’s 0.48 CS prob comes away from home, while Man Utd’s matching-tier number comes at home, so venue matters less than the underlying matchup.
How to weigh it
When two teams carry similar clean sheet probabilities, let price and projected points break the tie. Man Utd and Newcastle are essentially level at 0.53, but Newcastle’s Hall projects 4.83 xP against Lammens’ 4.47, so the raw fixture stat alone would have misled you. Further down the list, Brighton’s 0.42 CS prob looks modest next to the top two, yet De Cuyper’s 4.99 xP is the best figure on this entire page. The lesson: use CS probability to shortlist teams, then use individual xP and price to choose the actual player.
Top 5 teams for clean sheets
- Man Utd (home v TOT) – CS prob 0.53
- Newcastle (away v COV) – CS prob 0.53
- Brentford (away v AVL) – CS prob 0.48
- Brighton (away v SUN) – CS prob 0.42
- Crystal Palace (home v NFO) – CS prob 0.39
Best defender from each team
- Newcastle: Hall (£5.2m) – 4.83 xP, the standout pick among the top tier.
- Man Utd: Lammens (£4.9m) – 4.47 xP, backed by that 0.53 clean sheet probability.
- Brentford: Kelleher (£5.0m) – 4.75 xP, strong value against a 0.48 CS prob.
- Brighton: De Cuyper (£4.9m) – 4.99 xP, the best expected points figure in this dataset despite a lower CS prob.
- Crystal Palace: Mitchell (£4.5m) – 3.87 xP, the cheapest of the group.
Goalkeeper picks
Ipswich Town’s Davis (£4.0m, 4.11 xP) at home to Fulham is the budget standout given the 0.39 CS prob. Everton’s Tarkowski (£6.1m, 4.59 xP) and Hull’s Tzolakis (£4.6m, 4.59 xP) share identical xP figures despite facing each other, both sitting on a 0.36 CS prob. For pure ceiling, Kelleher’s 4.75 xP behind Brentford’s back line edges the goalkeeper market this week.
If you are unsure
Default to Newcastle’s Hall at £5.2m. He combines the joint-highest clean sheet probability in the gameweek, 0.53, with the second-best expected points total on this list, 4.83.
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