Four teams share the top clean sheet probability this gameweek at 0.44, and a further four sit close behind at 0.38 to 0.40. Here is where the defensive value lies for GW4.
Top 5 clean sheet fixtures
- Brighton away to COV, CS probability 0.44
- Everton away to TOT, CS probability 0.44
- Nott’m Forest away to AVL, CS probability 0.44
- Ipswich Town away to CRY, CS probability 0.40
- Arsenal away to SUN, CS probability 0.38
Best defender per team
De Cuyper (Brighton, £4.7m) leads the pack among the top group on pure expected points, projected at 4.72 xP for the trip to COV. At his price point that is the standout defensive pick on this list.
Tarkowski (Everton, £6.0m) is next up with 5.18 xP away at TOT, the highest expected points figure of any defender covered here, backed by Everton’s 0.44 clean sheet probability.
Sels (Nott’m Forest, £5.0m) rounds out the top tier of fixtures, projected at 4.32 xP away to AVL, level on clean sheet probability with Brighton and Everton at 0.44.
Scherpen (Ipswich Town, £4.5m) offers 4.07 xP away to CRY, with Ipswich’s 0.40 clean sheet probability the fourth best on the board this week.
Gabriel (Arsenal, £8.0m) is priced at the top of the market but still returns the second highest xP overall at 5.16, with Arsenal’s away trip to SUN carrying a 0.38 clean sheet probability.
Also in range: 0.38 clean sheet probability
Three more fixtures sit at 0.38 alongside Arsenal. Aston Villa at home to NFO have Suzuki (£5.0m) projected at 4.07 xP. Brentford away to BOU have Kelleher (£5.0m) at 4.35 xP. Liverpool at home to FUL have Alisson Becker (£5.5m) at 4.36 xP.
Goalkeeper picks
For pure goalkeeper value this week, Kelleher at £5.0m with 4.35 xP and Alisson at £5.5m with 4.36 xP stand out given their 0.38 clean sheet probabilities. Sels at £5.0m offers a slightly better clean sheet chance at 0.44 for a similar price, making him the standout budget goalkeeper on this list. Scherpen at £4.5m is the cheapest option covered here, with 4.07 xP behind a 0.40 clean sheet probability for Ipswich.
Across the board, De Cuyper and Tarkowski offer the strongest combination of price and expected points among defenders, while Gabriel remains the premium standout despite his cost.
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