Goal-scoring returns in GW6 come down to which attacks are hitting weak defences, not just which teams are “in form”. The numbers above give a clean read on that.
What matters this week
- Attack factor vs opponent defensive weakness: Brighton’s 1.43 attack factor away at Sunderland is the standout number this week, paired with a 0.96 defensive weakness reading for the hosts.
- Fixture location: most of the top upside sits with away teams this week, Brighton, Brentford and Man City are all on the road but still lead the list, which tells you the underlying attack strength matters more than home advantage alone.
- Price vs expected points: the gap between cost and output is wide. Kostoulas at £5.5m projects 5.37 xP, while Haaland at £15.6m projects 7.17 xP. Both are justified picks at very different budget levels.
How to weigh it
The trade-off is simple once you see it laid out. A high attack factor against a soft defence (Brighton at 1.43 attack factor, 0.96 opponent weakness) can outproduce a bigger name in a tougher matchup. But raw xP still separates the elite from the rest, Haaland’s 7.17 and Havertz’s 5.40 sit clearly above the pack regardless of fixture swing. Use attack factor and defensive weakness to find value picks, and lean on xP when comparing premiums against each other.
1. Brighton away at Sunderland
Attack factor 1.43 is the best number on the board, and Sunderland’s 0.96 defensive weakness backs it up. Kostoulas (£5.5m, xP 5.37) is the standout at a budget price.
2. Brentford away at Aston Villa
An attack factor of 1.16 against a 1.07 defensive weakness makes this a solid away pick. Thiago (£7.8m, xP 5.22) leads the line.
3. Chelsea at home to Bournemouth
Matching Brentford’s 1.16 attack factor with the same 1.07 opponent weakness. Palmer (£9.7m, xP 5.30) is the pick here.
4. Arsenal at home to Leeds
A 1.13 attack factor against a tighter 0.84 defensive weakness figure. Havertz (£7.6m, xP 5.40) tops the projections.
5. Man City away at Liverpool
1.13 attack factor against a 0.90 defensive weakness reading, but the standout here is individual quality. Haaland (£15.6m, xP 7.17) posts the highest xP of anyone on this list, and it is not close.
Captaincy implications
Haaland’s 7.17 xP makes him the top captaincy option this week on raw numbers alone, even against a tougher fixture than some of the names above. B.Fernandes (£12.0m, xP 5.70) at home to Tottenham is the next best premium option if you want to fade City’s away trip.
If you are unsure
Default to Haaland if budget allows, his 7.17 xP leads every player on this list. If you need a differential or are working with a tighter budget, Kostoulas at £5.5m offers the best attack factor on the board without the premium price tag.
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