Goal-scoring picks for GW5 come down to matching attack strength against how leaky the opponent is, then filtering by who is actually priced to deliver. The numbers below do that work for you.
What matters this week
- Attack factor vs opponent weakness: Chelsea away at Brentford top the list with an attack factor of 1.26 against an opponent defensive weakness of 0.91, but Brighton at home to Arsenal actually face a softer defence, 0.73 weakness, despite a slightly lower attack factor of 1.25.
- Fixture context cuts both ways: Brentford’s own home fixture against Chelsea shows the flip side, they carry a 1.09 attack factor but face a Chelsea defence rated as weak at 1.21, which is why Thiago also shows up as a viable pick from the opposite end of that same match.
- Price versus expected points: Haaland is the most expensive player here at £15.5m but also has the highest projected output at 8.43 xP, while cheaper options like Kostoulas at £5.5m (4.28 xP) and Emersonn at £5.5m (4.60 xP) offer differentiation at a fraction of the cost.
How to weigh it
Attack factor tells you how much a team is expected to create, but opponent defensive weakness tells you how much of that will actually convert to goal threat, so the two need to be read together rather than separately. A high attack factor against a stubborn defence can underperform a moderate attack factor against a leaky one, which is exactly the Brighton versus Chelsea comparison this week. Once you have ranked fixtures that way, price and xP settle the final call, since paying up for Haaland only makes sense if the projected return, 8.43 xP, clearly separates him from the pack, which it does here.
Top 5 teams for goal upside
- Chelsea (away v BRE): attack factor 1.26, opponent weakness 0.91. Top pick: João Pedro, £7.8m, 6.56 xP.
- Brighton (home v ARS): attack factor 1.25, opponent weakness 0.73. Top pick: Kostoulas, £5.5m, 4.28 xP.
- Man City (home v SUN): attack factor 1.18, opponent weakness 0.97. Top pick: Haaland, £15.5m, 8.43 xP.
- Man Utd (away v FUL): attack factor 1.18, opponent weakness 1.09. Top pick: B.Fernandes, £12.0m, 5.96 xP.
- Arsenal (away v BHA): attack factor 1.15, opponent weakness 1.05. Top pick: Havertz, £7.6m, 5.75 xP.
Captaincy implications
Haaland’s 8.43 xP is the clear ceiling play this gameweek and the natural default armband. João Pedro at 6.56 xP is the differential captain case if you want to fade the City ownership, backed by Chelsea’s 1.26 attack factor against a Brentford defence rated 0.91 in weakness. B.Fernandes and Havertz are reasonable alternatives if you are already loaded on City or Chelsea assets elsewhere in your team.
If you are unsure
Default to Haaland. An 8.43 xP projection against Sunderland at home is the highest number on this list by a wide margin, and that gap alone should decide the armband if you have no strong reason to look elsewhere.
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