The five fixtures with the most goal upside
Two fixtures stand clear at the top of the GW3 attacking ticker. Man City (home v Coventry) carry an attack factor of 1.18 against a defence with a weakness rating of 1.10, the strongest combined profile of any team this week. Brighton (home v Leeds) match them on attack factor at 1.17, though Leeds’ defensive weakness sits lower at 0.89, which moderates the ceiling a touch.
Arsenal (home v Chelsea) and Brentford (home v Sunderland) both post an attack factor of 1.10, each facing a defence rated at 1.03 for weakness. That is a solid, if not elite, combination. Fulham (home v Crystal Palace) round out the top five with an attack factor of 1.03, but Palace’s defensive weakness of 1.18 is the second-highest number on the board and pushes Fulham’s upside above teams with a stronger attack rating but softer opposition figures.
Best attacker per fixture
- Erling Haaland, Man City, £15.5m, xP 9.18. The numbers are not close. An xP of 9.18 is the highest projected return on the sheet by a distance, underpinned by the strongest fixture combination in GW3.
- Kaoru Mitoma… wait, Jonathan David, Brighton, £6.0m, xP 4.84. David is Brighton’s top-rated attacker at £6.0m with an xP of 4.84. The Leeds defensive weakness of 0.89 keeps the ceiling modest relative to price.
- Kai Havertz, Arsenal, £7.5m, xP 6.40. Arsenal’s best-projected attacker for the Chelsea home fixture, returning an xP of 6.40 against a weakness rating of 1.03.
- Thiago, Brentford, £8.0m, xP 6.17. Brentford’s top attacking option for the Sunderland fixture, with an xP of 6.17 sitting comfortably above the team’s average expectation.
- Gonzalo, Fulham, £6.0m, xP 5.82. Fulham’s standout pick. An attack factor of only 1.03 is limited, but Crystal Palace’s defensive weakness of 1.18 lifts Gonzalo’s xP to 5.82, one of the better value returns in this gameweek.
Honourable mentions
João Pedro (Chelsea, £7.6m, xP 5.78) is worth noting as Chelsea travel to Arsenal. The attack factor of 1.10 is genuine, though the away tag and Arsenal’s home record temper expectations. McBurnie (Hull City, £5.5m, xP 5.42) benefits from Aston Villa’s defensive weakness of 1.17, the third-highest on the board, giving him budget appeal. Barry (Everton, £5.5m, xP 5.26) rounds things out, with Everton posting an attack factor of 1.03 against a Manchester United defence rated at 1.03 for weakness.
Captaincy implications
Haaland is the captaincy call the data points to, and it is not subtle. An xP of 9.18, an attack factor of 1.18, and a home fixture against a side with a defensive weakness of 1.10 make his case without any need for further argument. The gap between him and the next-best projected return, Havertz at 6.40, is significant. If Haaland is unavailable for any reason, Havertz and Thiago are the next picks in the queue, both carrying xP above 6.00 in home fixtures with a defensive weakness of 1.03.
Check the fixture run for the players you actually own
fplwire reads your live FPL team and shows you your captain options, transfer targets, chip timing and mini league standings in one place. Free, and no account needed.