Clean sheet hunting in GW5 comes down to matching fixture strength with the actual price of the asset. The data below gives clear separation between the elite fixtures and the cheaper alternatives that still carry real probability.
What matters this week
- Fixture strength varies widely. Aston Villa’s 0.53 clean sheet probability away at Tottenham sits well above the pack, with Spurs themselves close behind at 0.48 in the same fixture.
- Price does not always track probability. Nott’m Forest match Spurs at 0.48 CS probability but their top defender, Murillo at £5.5m, costs a full point more than Kinsky at £4.5m.
- Budget options still cluster near 0.40. Man City (0.41), Coventry (0.39), Man Utd (0.39), Crystal Palace (0.38) and Ipswich (0.36) all offer usable clean sheet odds at £4.5m to £6.0m.
How to weigh it
When two fixtures carry similar clean sheet probability, let price and expected points break the tie. Kinsky’s 4.61 xP at £4.5m is nearly as good as Murillo’s 4.69 xP at £5.5m, so the cheaper option frees up budget elsewhere without costing you much upside. Once probability drops below 0.40, only take the pick if the xP still justifies the price, since Guéhi’s 4.95 xP at £6.0m is the standout in that tier despite Man City’s lower 0.41 probability.
Top 5 teams for clean sheets
- Aston Villa away at Tottenham, CS probability 0.53
- Tottenham at home to Aston Villa, CS probability 0.48
- Nott’m Forest at home to Coventry City, CS probability 0.48
- Man City at home to Sunderland, CS probability 0.41
- Coventry City away at Nott’m Forest, CS probability 0.39
Best defender per team
- Aston Villa: no defender listed above, Suzuki is the top asset in this fixture.
- Tottenham: Kinsky, £4.5m, xP 4.61.
- Nott’m Forest: Murillo, £5.5m, xP 4.69.
- Man City: Guéhi, £6.0m, xP 4.95.
- Coventry City: Rushworth is the top asset here rather than an outfield defender.
Goalkeeper picks
For pure clean sheet probability, Suzuki (£5.0m, xP 4.83) leads at 0.53 for Aston Villa’s trip to Tottenham. Kinsky (£4.5m, xP 4.61) offers nearly identical value at the cheaper price for the same fixture. Guéhi at £6.0m posts the highest raw xP of the group at 4.95, useful if you want the single highest ceiling pick regardless of price.
If you are unsure
Default to Kinsky at £4.5m. He sits in the joint-best fixture at 0.48 CS probability, delivers 4.61 xP, and frees up budget compared to pricier options with similar upside.
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