Value in FPL is not just about the cheapest player who starts. It is about how much expected points you get per million spent, and this week the numbers point to a few clear patterns across the pitch.
What matters this week
- Price ceilings at the budget end. The best defensive value sits at £4.0m to £5.2m (Thomas, Davis, Dasilva, Bogle, De Cuyper), which means you can build a strong back line without sacrificing much xP.
- Forwards deliver the highest raw returns. João Pedro’s 7.54 xP at £7.8m dwarfs every other position, but Kostoulas at £5.7m for 5.46 xP is nearly as efficient per pound (0.96 vs 0.97).
- Midfield value is thinner. The top midfield ratio, Groß at 0.81 xP/£m, trails every other position’s leader, meaning midfield is where you likely pay a premium rather than find a bargain.
How to weigh it
The trade-off is simple: defenders and goalkeepers give you the most efficient return per million, which frees up budget, but forwards give you the most total points if you can afford them. If your squad is tight on funds, loading up on the 0.95+ xP/£m defenders (Bogle at 1.02, De Cuyper at 1.00) lets you stretch to a premium forward like João Pedro. If you are already set at the back, spending up at forward or accepting a slightly lower ratio in midfield (Groß at 0.81) is the better use of remaining funds, since midfield value simply is not there this week.
Best value pick overall
Bogle (LEE, £4.7m) tops the entire dataset at 1.02 xP per £m, the only player across all positions to clear the 1.00 mark. At 4.78 xP for £4.7m, he is the standout efficiency pick for GW8.
Goalkeeper
Leno (FUL, £4.5m) and Verbruggen (BHA, £4.6m) are tied at the top with 0.97 xP/£m each, Leno on 4.38 xP and Verbruggen on 4.46 xP. Either is a sound budget option.
Defender
Bogle leads, with De Cuyper (BHA, £5.2m, 5.21 xP) close behind as the higher-ceiling alternative at a touch more cost.
Midfielder
Groß (BHA, £6.1m, 4.94 xP, 0.81 xP/£m) is the best available ratio, though it is the weakest top mark of any position this week.
Forward
João Pedro (CHE, £7.8m) posts the highest xP on the board at 7.54, with a 0.97 xP/£m ratio that matches the top goalkeepers despite the premium price. Kostoulas (BHA, £5.7m, 5.46 xP) is the budget-friendly alternative.
Squad-building takeaways
Use the £4.0m defenders (Thomas, Davis, Dasilva, all 0.95 xP/£m or higher) as enablers to free funds for João Pedro or Groß. With midfield value scarce, it is reasonable to spend less there and more at forward or in defense, where this week’s numbers clearly favor it.
If you are unsure
Default to Bogle at the back and João Pedro up front. They anchor the highest efficiency and the highest ceiling respectively, covering both approaches to value this gameweek.
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