What matters this week
Three things are driving the xP model this gameweek:
- Fixtures at the top end. Haaland’s 9.09 xP away at Aston Villa dwarfs every other forward, and João Pedro (7.54 xP) benefits from Chelsea hosting Tottenham alongside Palmer (5.52) and Rogers (5.15).
- Form over reputation in defence. De Cuyper is posting a 7.0 form figure at Brighton despite a modest £5.2m price, while Gabriel’s underlying form sits at just 1.0 even with a home tie against Everton.
- Budget picks earning starting spots on merit. Bogle (£4.7m, 4.78 xP) and Trafford (£5.0m, 4.63 xP, form 4.0) are cheap enough to fund the premium forwards without dragging down output.
How to weigh it
When form and fixture point the same direction, as with De Cuyper (7.0 form, away at Liverpool but still 5.21 xP) or Cherki (6.0 form, 5.13 xP at Villa), you prioritise them over reputation picks whose price outstrips their current output, like Gabriel or B.Fernandes at 1.0 form each. Price only matters once xP is settled, use it to decide which premium you can actually afford after locking in the double-digit forward and the best-value defenders.
Lineup overview
A 3-4-3 suits this group, leaning on the forward line’s xP advantage while keeping five playable defenders on the bench rotation. Total cost here is £116.7m, which is £16.7m over the standard £100m budget, so most squads will need to trim a Fernandes or Isak slot and drop in a cheaper alternative to balance the books.
Key picks by position
Forwards: Haaland (9.09 xP, 76.5% selected) is the standout, with João Pedro (7.54 xP) as a strong budget-friendly second. Isak (5.47 xP) rounds out the line at a lower 12.3% ownership, a useful differential if funds allow.
Midfield: Palmer (5.52 xP) and Rogers (5.15 xP) both profit from Chelsea hosting Tottenham. Cherki (5.13 xP, form 6.0) and Groß (4.94 xP, form 6.7) offer MCI and BHA coverage at sub-£8.1m prices.
Defence: De Cuyper leads on value at £5.2m with 5.21 xP, backed by Gvardiol (4.96 xP) and Guéhi (4.85 xP), both away at Villa.
Captain pick
Haaland is the clear armband choice, 9.09 xP and a 76.5% ownership reflecting the market’s own conviction.
Bench order
Trafford (4.63 xP) sits as backup keeper. Bogle (4.78 xP) leads the outfield bench ahead of lower-xP cover, keeping a route to points if a starter blanks.
If you are unsure
Default to Haaland as captain, De Cuyper and João Pedro as your value anchors, and trim the squad to £100m by swapping one premium midfielder for a cheaper alternative rather than weakening the forward line.
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