Havertz leads the budget captaincy pool for GW4 at £7.5m, posting the top expected points figure of 5.21 among sub £7.5m options. That works out to an xP per million of roughly 0.69, the best return of any player in this bracket. He travels to face SUN, and his current form reading sits at 2.7 with a selection of just 6.8 percent, meaning he is still relatively under the radar for a player of his price and output.
The alternatives
Šeško of MUN comes in second on raw xP with 5.17, only marginally behind Havertz, and he does it at £7.0m, a touch cheaper. His form figure of 0.7 is low compared to the rest of this list, and his ownership is minimal at 1.6 percent, so this would be a contrarian pick if his xP holds up against MCI at home.
Kostoulas of BHA is the standout value play here. At £5.5m he generates 5.07 xP, giving him an xP per million near 0.92, comfortably the best ratio in the entire top five. His ownership is razor thin at 0.5 percent and his form sits at 2.0, but for a player at this price point to be within 0.14 xP of the top overall pick is notable. He plays away at COV.
Gakpo of LIV is the form pick of the group by a distance. His form rating of 9.3 dwarfs everyone else on this list, and he arrives with the highest ownership among the top five at 9.2 percent, suggesting more managers already trust him. At £7.1m, home to FUL, his xP of 5.00 is close to the top names, and his recent output gives him a case as the safer captaincy route if recent form is weighted heavily.
David rounds out the list
David of BHA closes out the top five with 4.94 xP at £6.0m, away to COV. His form of 0.3 and ownership of 0.2 percent make him the deepest differential of the group, appealing only to those chasing rank rather than stability.
Verdict
Havertz is the pick on pure expected points, and his xP per million still edges out Gakpo despite Gakpo’s superior recent form. For managers wanting the best pound for pound return, Kostoulas at £5.5m is the one to watch, offering elite value at a fraction of the price of the names above him. Gakpo remains the form based alternative if recent output matters more to you than a clean xP per million comparison. Šeško and David are lower probability plays given their form numbers, but both carry the kind of low ownership that could pay off if their fixtures break right.
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