Template teams are starting to calcify after three gameweeks, which means the gap between a good rank and a great rank is now sitting in the players nobody owns. Anything under 10% selected still counts as a differential in this format, and the expected points model has thrown up some names worth a look before deadline.
Why differentials matter this week
With ownership patterns settling, a single differential haul can swing thousands of ranks in a way that template picks simply cannot. The list below is sorted purely by expected points among sub-10% owned assets, and it is topped by a striker at a club most managers would not associate with budget differentials.
Top 5 picks
1. Benjamin Šeško (MUN, £7.0m)
Šeško leads the differential pool with an xP of 5.17 despite a modest recent form score of 0.7 and just 1.6% selection. He is at home against Manchester City, a fixture that will scare plenty of managers off, but the model likes his underlying numbers regardless of the opponent.
2. Charalampos Kostoulas (BHA, £5.5m)
Kostoulas offers the best value on this list at £5.5m with an xP of 5.07 and a form score of 2.0, the highest among the top five. At 0.5% ownership he is about as under-the-radar as it gets, and he travels to Coventry.
3. Yankuba David (BHA, £6.0m)
David sits third with an xP of 4.94 despite a low 0.3 form score and just 0.2% ownership, making him the most under-owned name in the entire list. He shares the away trip to Coventry with his Brighton teammate above.
4. Emersonn (IPS, £5.5m)
Emersonn’s form score of 4.0 is the standout figure here, comfortably the best of any player in this top 10, and it backs up his 4.78 xP. He is 1.7% owned and travels to Crystal Palace.
5. Jean-Philippe Mateta… correction, Jean Strand Larsen (CRY, £6.0m)
Strand Larsen rounds out the top five with a 4.76 xP and a home fixture against Ipswich. His form score of 1.0 is unspectacular but the underlying model still rates the matchup, and he sits at just 0.5% ownership.
Risky punts
Dean Henderson’s namesake in goal, Matz Sels (NFO, £5.0m), carries a 4.32 xP away at Aston Villa with a 1.0 form score and 1.4% ownership, a decent floor play at the goalkeeper position. Antonín Horníček (NEW, £5.0m) is the punchier punt, boasting a 2.7 form score and 4.31 xP away at Leeds from just 1.2% ownership, though goalkeeper returns can be lumpy week to week.
Verdict
Kostoulas looks the sharpest combination of price, form and expected points on this list, with David offering an even cheaper, near-zero-ownership alternative from the same fixture. Šeško’s raw xP of 5.17 is tempting at the top end, but his 0.7 form score and the Manchester City fixture make him the higher-variance route to the top spot. Emersonn’s 4.0 form score is the number that stands out most across the entire list and is hard to ignore at £5.5m.
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