Clean sheet picking in GW7 comes down to matching the fixture to the actual probability, not just the reputation of the club.
What matters this week
- Fixture strength: the top of the list is tight. Spurs at home to Coventry sit at 0.52 CS probability, with Coventry themselves away at Spurs still carrying 0.49. That is an unusually open game for both ends to fancy a shutout.
- Price versus expected points: several of the best CS odds come with cheap enablers. Rushworth at £4.5m returns 4.48 xP for Coventry, and Tzolakis at £4.7m returns 4.84 xP for Hull, both punching above their price.
- Attacking returns from defence: De Cuyper at Brighton has the highest single xP figure here, 5.60, despite Brighton’s CS probability being the lowest of the group at 0.37. That tells you goal and assist threat is doing real work in his number.
How to weigh it
When two fixtures have similar clean sheet odds, let price and attacking upside break the tie. Spurs (0.52) and Coventry (0.49) are basically a coin flip for who keeps the clean sheet, so looking past raw CS probability into xP, like Kinsky’s 4.67 versus Rushworth’s 4.48, helps separate them. Where CS probability drops, as with Brighton’s 0.37, a high xP player like De Cuyper can still outscore a safer, higher probability pick simply because he threatens the opposition box too. The trade off is always the same, chase the surest clean sheet or chase the player whose total output covers you even if the shutout does not happen.
Top 5 teams for clean sheets
- Spurs, home v Coventry, CS probability 0.52
- Coventry City, away at Spurs, CS probability 0.49
- Arsenal, away at Nottingham Forest, CS probability 0.42
- Bournemouth, home v Sunderland, CS probability 0.40
- Hull City, away at Fulham, CS probability 0.40
Best defender per team
- Spurs: Kinsky, £4.5m, 4.67 xP.
- Coventry City: Rushworth, £4.5m, 4.48 xP.
- Arsenal: Raya, £6.1m, 5.03 xP.
- Bournemouth: Petrović, £4.5m, 3.86 xP.
- Hull City: Tzolakis, £4.7m, 4.84 xP.
Goalkeeper picks
Raya is the standout on pure expected points, 5.03 xP at £6.1m, backed by Arsenal’s 0.42 clean sheet probability away at Forest. For budget builds, Tzolakis at £4.7m offers 4.84 xP, and Kinsky at £4.5m offers 4.67 xP, both well above their price point. Hall is also worth flagging as a defensive option at Newcastle, £5.3m with 4.76 xP, against Aston Villa with a 0.40 clean sheet probability.
If you are unsure
Default to Raya. His 5.03 xP is the highest on this list and Arsenal’s 0.42 clean sheet probability away at Forest is solid without needing to chase the riskier 0.50 range fixtures.
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