GW7 splits into two tiers. A handful of fixtures combine a strong attack factor with a genuinely weak opponent defence, and those are where you want your goal involvement shares pointed. The rest are fine squad players, not must starts.
What matters this week
- Attack factor versus opponent weakness, together. Brighton at home to Crystal Palace pairs a 1.47 attack factor with a 1.20 defensive weakness read, the strongest combination on the list.
- Price versus output. Haaland costs £15.6m but his 10.25 xP is more than double anyone else’s, which changes how you should weigh value against ceiling.
- Fixture floor matters even when the attack factor is modest. Man Utd away at Leeds only shows a 1.02 attack factor, but Bruno Fernandes still clears 4.40 xP, showing the underlying fixture is workable even without an elite attacking rating.
How to weigh it
When attack factor and opponent weakness both point the same way, as with Brighton (1.47 attack factor, 1.20 opponent weakness) and Man City (1.31, 1.17), that is your strongest signal, trust it over reputation. When the numbers are more middling, like Arsenal’s 1.07 or Ipswich’s 1.02, lean on the individual player’s xP rather than the team label. And always weigh price against xP per million, not xP alone, a £5.6m player returning 7.15 xP is doing more relative work than a £15.6m player returning 10.25, even though the raw number favours the latter.
The top 5 for goal upside
- Brighton (h) v Crystal Palace, attack factor 1.47, opponent weakness 1.20. Top pick: Kostoulas, £5.6m, xP 7.15.
- Chelsea (a) at Everton, attack factor 1.32, opponent weakness 0.78. Top pick: João Pedro, £7.7m, xP 6.02.
- Man City (h) v Ipswich, attack factor 1.31, opponent weakness 1.17. Top pick: Haaland, £15.6m, xP 10.25.
- Brentford (h) v Liverpool, attack factor 1.17, opponent weakness 0.83. Top pick: Thiago, £7.8m, xP 4.89.
- Newcastle (h) v Aston Villa, attack factor 1.10, opponent weakness 1.12. Top pick: Wissa, £6.3m, xP 5.34.
Captaincy implications
Haaland’s 10.25 xP is clear of the field and he is the obvious captain if you own him, the 1.31 attack factor plus 1.17 opponent weakness against Ipswich backs it up. Kostoulas at 7.15 xP for £5.6m is the standout differential option against Crystal Palace, with both the attack factor and opponent weakness among the best on the board. João Pedro’s 6.02 xP at Everton is the next tier down but still above the rest of the list.
If you are unsure
Default to Haaland if he is in your squad, the xP gap over every other name here is too large to ignore. If you do not own him, Kostoulas at £5.6m offers the best combination of fixture strength and value on this list.
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