What matters this week
Three things decide this Free Hit: standout fixtures, current form, and which cheap players are actually delivering. Haaland (£15.7m) leads everyone with an xP of 9.09 against Aston Villa away, and João Pedro (£7.8m) is right behind the big names at 7.54 xP at home to Tottenham. On the value side, De Cuyper (£5.2m) has a form score of 7.0 and Groß (£6.1m) is at 6.7, both away to Liverpool, proof that cheap picks can carry a Free Hit if the underlying numbers back it up.
- Fixtures: Haaland and Cherki both travel to Villa, Palmer and Rogers both host Spurs, Trafford and Bogle both play away at Sunderland.
- Form: Cherki (6.0), Groß (6.7) and Isak (5.7) are in better recent form than several pricier midfielders like B.Fernandes (1.0) and Palmer (4.0).
- Price efficiency: De Cuyper at £5.2m with 5.21 xP and Bogle at £4.7m with 4.78 xP outperform their price tags relative to defenders like Gabriel (£7.9m, 4.80 xP).
How to weigh it
On a Free Hit there is no budget carried forward, so the trade-off is pure point-maximisation within the gameweek, not asset protection. That means form and fixture should usually outrank reputation and price. Haaland’s 9.09 xP justifies his £15.7m price alone, but the rest of the squad should be built from whoever has the best combination of matchup and recent output, even if that means starting a £5.2m defender like De Cuyper over a £7.9m one like Gabriel. Selection percentage is a tiebreaker at best, not a reason on its own.
Starting XI
Raya (GKP), De Cuyper, Gvardiol, Guéhi, Gabriel, Bogle (DEF), Palmer, B.Fernandes, Rogers, Cherki, Groß (MID), Haaland, João Pedro, Isak (FWD). This fits a 5-4-1 or flexible 4-5-1 shape, leaning on the strong defensive volume from Brighton, Man City and Leeds fixtures.
Bench order
Trafford first as backup keeper given his 4.63 xP and 4.0 form away at Sunderland. Then the lowest-floor outfield pick from the XI you trust least, likely one of the Man City or Arsenal defenders given their modest form figures of 2.7 and 1.0 respectively.
Captain
Haaland is the clear captain choice with a 9.09 xP, the highest of anyone in the pool, and strong recent form at 8.3. João Pedro is the backup option at 7.54 xP for those wanting a hedge against City’s away trip to Villa.
Key fixtures
Watch Man City away at Villa (Haaland, Gvardiol, Guéhi, Cherki), Chelsea at home to Tottenham (Palmer, Rogers, João Pedro), and Brighton away at Liverpool (De Cuyper, Groß).
If you are unsure
Default to Haaland as captain and build around the Chelsea-Tottenham and Man City-Villa fixtures. They offer the clearest combination of high xP and recent form in this data set.
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