The pick
Erling Haaland is the standout captain for GW36. He leads the projections by a distance at 15.01 expected points, comfortably clear of every other option this week, and he gets the ideal setup with Manchester City at home to Crystal Palace. When the top projected player also carries 63.0% selection, the combination of upside and effective ownership makes the decision even easier.
The key point is the gap. Haaland is nearly six expected points ahead of the next-best candidate, Semenyo on 9.24, which is a huge margin for captaincy. His recent form of 5.5 is solid rather than explosive, but the fixture and the underlying projection matter more here. In a week where City dominate the captaincy pool, backing the central finisher with penalties and the highest ceiling is the percentage play and still the best route to a major rank gain if he delivers a haul.
Alternatives
Semenyo is the nearest challenger on the model at 9.24 expected points. He also has the same strong home fixture against Palace and a hefty 49.5% selection, so he is not exactly a rogue play. The issue is role and ceiling. At 2.2 form, he comes in well behind Haaland both on recent output and raw projection. He is viable if you are chasing a differential within the popular City attack structure, but he is still a clear second choice.
Rayan Cherki is probably the most interesting upside alternative. His 7.55 expected points is third-best this week, and his form of 7.0 is stronger than Haaland, Semenyo, and Foden. Add in just 17.6% selection, and there is an obvious case for managers seeking a lower-owned route into the same fixture. The trade-off is certainty. He projects well, but not close enough to Haaland to justify captaining him in a vacuum.
Phil Foden and Jeremy Doku sit in the next tier. Foden is on 7.15 expected points with only 0.8 form, which makes him difficult to trust despite his quality. Doku has a slightly lower projection at 6.84 but the best recent form of 7.8 and just 3.7% selection, so he is the true high-risk swing. If you want to bet on variance and low ownership, Doku has some appeal, but you are giving up far too much baseline compared with Haaland.
The verdict
Haaland is the best captain pick for GW36, and it is not especially close. 15.01 expected points in a home match against Crystal Palace is an elite captaincy profile, and none of Semenyo, Cherki, Foden, or Doku get near him on projection. If you want the optimal blend of safety, ceiling, and rank protection, captain Haaland.