Starting XI: Raya; Gabriel, Guéhi, Senesi; Saka, Bruno Fernandes, Rice, Semenyo; Haaland, Thiago, Bowen.
Bench order: Dúbravka, Virgil, Tarkowski, Szoboszlai.
Captain: Haaland.
Why this Free Hit works
This squad leans into the strongest projected players rather than forcing balance for future weeks. On Free Hit, that is exactly what you want in GW38. Haaland is the clear headline pick with an xP of 7.69, comfortably the top number in the squad, and he gets a home fixture against Aston Villa. Even in a week where rotation can be a concern, that projected edge is too big to ignore, and he is the standout captain.
Arsenal provide the best defensive spine. Raya comes in with 4.82 xP away at Crystal Palace, while Gabriel is even stronger at 5.38 xP, the best defender projection in this draft. Rice and Saka add attacking exposure to the same match. Rice is projected at 4.17 xP, Saka at 3.83 xP. Saka’s ceiling is still the bigger draw, especially with penalties and proven explosive potential, so he starts despite the lower baseline.
Bruno Fernandes is a simple inclusion in midfield. His xP is 4.23, but the real selling point is the form figure of 7.8, one of the strongest in the whole squad. Away to Brighton, he offers both creativity and set-piece involvement. Semenyo also makes the XI on 4.58 xP, while Bowen is listed as a forward here and earns his place with 4.63 xP in a home game against Leeds.
In defence, Guéhi at 4.45 xP and Senesi at 4.37 xP round out the back line. Both outscore the bench defenders on projection, and that matters in a one-week punt. Virgil is first outfield sub on 4.26 xP, narrowly ahead of Tarkowski on 4.25 xP. The margins are tiny, so if you prefer Liverpool clean sheet odds at home to Brentford, moving Virgil into the XI is perfectly reasonable.
Captaincy
Haaland is the captain. The 7.69 xP is elite, and no other player gets close enough to make this a real debate. Gabriel is the best non-attacking differential in the squad, but Haaland remains the optimal armband.
Key fixtures to target
- Crystal Palace vs Arsenal: Raya, Gabriel, Rice, Saka all benefit from Arsenal coverage.
- Man City vs Aston Villa: Haaland is the premium captain, Semenyo adds another route into that game.
- Man United vs Brighton: Bruno Fernandes brings form of 7.8 and steady projection.
- West Ham vs Leeds: Bowen’s 4.63 xP makes him one of the better forward picks.
- Liverpool vs Brentford: Virgil and Szoboszlai are strong bench options if you want extra exposure.
If you want the safest version of this Free Hit, keep the Arsenal core, lock in Haaland captain, and build around the highest xP defenders. That gives you a high-floor squad with enough attacking upside to chase a big GW38 finish.