Eight teams carry a clean sheet probability of 0.36 or higher in GW3. Here is where the value sits, ranked by odds and filtered to the picks that matter most for your squad.
Top five teams for GW3 clean sheets
Fulham (home v Crystal Palace, CS prob 0.41)
Fulham lead the board this week with the highest clean sheet probability in GW3 at 0.41. Bernd Leno is the standout pick at £4.5m with an expected points figure of 4.18. At that price, he is one of the most budget-friendly routes into the top clean sheet odds of the gameweek.
Everton (home v Manchester United, CS prob 0.39)
Jordan Pickford at £5.5m carries an xP of 4.67, the highest goalkeeper expected points figure among the top teams this week. Everton’s clean sheet probability of 0.39 makes him a strong mid-price option if you have the budget.
Hull City (home v Aston Villa, CS prob 0.39)
Hull sit level with Everton on 0.39 probability. Thimothee Tzolakis at £4.5m returns an xP of 4.52, making him an extremely cost-efficient pick. At that price point and with those expected returns, he is worth serious consideration for budget-conscious squads.
Man City (home v Coventry, CS prob 0.39)
City share the 0.39 mark, and the top pick here is Marc Guehi at £6.0m with an xP of 4.76, the single highest expected points figure across all defensive picks listed this week. If you are looking for a premium defender with strong clean sheet backing, the data points firmly in his direction.
Nottingham Forest (home v Tottenham, CS prob 0.39)
Matz Sels at £5.0m posts an xP of 4.29. Forest at home with a 0.39 probability is a fixture worth targeting, and Sels represents a tidy mid-price goalkeeper option.
Other teams worth noting
- Spurs away v Forest (CS prob 0.39): Senesi at £6.0m, xP 4.22. Spurs share the 0.39 probability mark from the away side of the same fixture, so the Forest-Spurs match is the standout game of the round for defensive returns.
- Brentford home v Sunderland (CS prob 0.36): Kelleher at £5.0m, xP 4.40. A solid mid-range goalkeeper option with a workable price.
- Brighton home v Leeds (CS prob 0.36): De Cuyper at £4.6m, xP 4.55. Strong value from a defender at that price with a 0.36 clean sheet probability at home.
Goalkeeper picks ranked by expected points
- Pickford, £5.5m, xP 4.67 (Everton, CS prob 0.39)
- Tzolakis, £4.5m, xP 4.52 (Hull, CS prob 0.39)
- Kelleher, £5.0m, xP 4.40 (Brentford, CS prob 0.36)
- Sels, £5.0m, xP 4.29 (Forest, CS prob 0.39)
- Leno, £4.5m, xP 4.18 (Fulham, CS prob 0.41)
Pickford leads the goalkeeper xP chart despite Fulham having the best clean sheet odds in GW3. If budget allows, he is the top-ranked keeper pick on the numbers. For those building around value, Tzolakis and Leno at £4.5m each offer two of the cheapest routes into teams sitting above 0.39 clean sheet probability this week. Guehi at £6.0m remains the headline defensive pick on xP alone.
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