A Free Hit wipes your squad for one week only, so the only question that matters is which 15 players give you the best single gameweek, with no thought for price rises or future fixtures.
What matters this week
Three things separate the picks this week:
- Fixture strength. Manchester City host Sunderland, which pulls in Gvardiol (xP 4.92), Guéhi (xP 4.95) and Haaland (xP 8.43) all in the same match, plus Cherki (xP 5.14).
- Form over price. João Pedro is £7.8m with a form score of 8.2 and xP 6.56, well above pricier midfield options like Palmer (£9.7m, xP 4.99) or Mbeumo (£7.9m, xP 4.94). Tarkowski at £6.0m carries a 7.2 form reading, the highest of any defender listed.
- Ownership as a signal, not a rule. Haaland sits at 71.7% selected and João Pedro at 74.2%, both backed by the data with the top two xP scores in the squad (8.43 and 6.56). High ownership here lines up with the numbers rather than fighting them.
How to weigh it
On a Free Hit you are not paying for future potential, so form and fixture this week should outrank price and reputation every time. A £6.0m defender in great form (Tarkowski, 7.2) is a better use of funds than a bigger name with a tougher fixture, and a £7.8m forward with elite form (João Pedro) can outproduce a £9m+ midfielder having an average week. Spend where the xP numbers cluster around a single fixture, like the City home game against Sunderland, since that concentrates goal threat and clean sheet odds in one match rather than spreading risk thin.
Starting XI
GKP: Kinsky (£4.5m, xP 4.61, home v AVL). DEF: Gvardiol, Guéhi, Tarkowski, Gabriel. MID: B.Fernandes (xP 5.96), Saka (xP 5.13, form 7.5), Cherki, Palmer. FWD: Haaland, João Pedro.
Bench order
1. Suzuki (GKP, xP 4.83, but benched behind Kinsky’s home fixture). 2. Murillo (DEF, xP 4.69). 3. Mbeumo (MID, xP 4.94). 4. Isak (FWD, xP 6.46, strong number but squeezed out by the City cluster).
Captain
Haaland is the pick with xP 8.43, the highest in the entire squad, at home to Sunderland. João Pedro (xP 6.56, form 8.2) is the clear vice-captain option if you want a hedge against a City blank.
Key fixtures
Manchester City vs Sunderland anchors this team, supplying Gvardiol, Guéhi, Cherki and Haaland. Arsenal away at Brighton backs up Gabriel and Saka. Chelsea away at Brentford brings in Palmer and João Pedro.
If you are unsure
Default to the highest raw xP at each position, Kinsky, Guéhi, Gvardiol, Tarkowski, Gabriel, B.Fernandes, Saka, Cherki, Palmer, Haaland, João Pedro, and captain Haaland. That combination follows the data without overthinking it.
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