Gameweek 4 throws up a handful of fixtures where the underlying numbers back up the eye test. Attack factor and opponent defensive weakness combine to flag five teams worth building around this week.
1. Brighton away at Coventry
Brighton carry an attack factor of 1.26 into a trip to Coventry, with the hosts showing a defensive weakness rating of 1.06. That combination points squarely at Kostoulas, priced at £5.5m with an xP of 5.07. A cut price differential option for squads short on budget in the front third.
2. Chelsea at home to Hull
Chelsea match Brighton’s 1.26 attack factor and get the friendliest matchup on this list, with Hull’s defensive weakness sitting at 0.80. That underpins João Pedro as the standout pick at £7.7m, posting the second highest xP on this list at 6.58. Home advantage against a defence rated this generously makes him a strong shout for template status.
3. Man City away at Manchester United
City’s 1.19 attack factor away at United, who carry a defensive weakness of 1.06, sets up the highest projected returner in this ticker. Haaland, at £15.5m, tops the lot with an xP of 8.26. Numbers like that make the derby the headline fixture of the gameweek for goal threat, expensive as he is.
4. Man Utd at home to Man City
The reverse angle of the derby also makes the list. United’s attack factor of 1.13 at home, against a City defensive weakness of 0.93, gives B.Fernandes a route to returns at £12.0m with an xP of 5.60. Useful context for anyone debating a City defender versus United’s own attacking outlet in the same match.
5. Liverpool at home to Fulham
Liverpool’s 1.08 attack factor combines with Fulham’s 1.06 defensive weakness, the joint highest opponent weakness figure on this list alongside Coventry’s. That points to Isak at £9.0m, whose xP of 7.50 is the second best projection in the entire gameweek behind Haaland.
Captaincy implications
On the raw xP numbers, Haaland’s 8.26 leads the way and remains the most defensible captain pick for GW4, with Isak’s 7.50 at home to Fulham the clearest alternative for those managing City exposure elsewhere. João Pedro’s 6.58 against the joint weakest defence on this list also deserves consideration in a week without an abundance of standout template captains. Fernandes, Kostoulas, Havertz, Thiago and Wissa round out the wider pool but sit clearly behind the top three on projected returns.
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